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Posted July 3, 2025 at 11:05 am
Initial unemployment claims have exceeded 220,000 for 12 consecutive weeks. I expect that next week will be the thirteenth. The indicator is poised to remain range bound since a climb above 250,000 typically occurs during periods of economic stress. Indeed, filings have only exceeded 250,000 once in the past 22 months and a surge isn’t in the cards, in my opinion. I’m projecting 235,000, and heading into the print, I like a combination trade that consists of purchasing the “Yes” and “No” answers at the 220,000 and 250,000 thresholds, which cost $0.83 and $0.81 for a total of $1.64. The trade delivers $2.00 back to the investor on a number as low as 221,000 or as high as 250,000 while the max loss stands at $0.64 if it arrives outside of those parameters. Furthermore, I also find the risk-reward attractive for the “No” at the 260,000 level, priced at $0.92.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 3, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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