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Posted July 13, 2026 at 12:54 pm
Tomorrow’s release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect a sharp deceleration from May’s 4.2%, which many on Wall Street including myself believe to be the peak for 2026. The median estimate for the headline figure stands at 3.8%, according to the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 51 forecasters. Meanwhile, the minimum and maximum projections within this sample are hovering at 3.6% and 4%. Against this backdrop, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market sees just a 27% chance of a number coming in ahead of 3.8%, amidst a 94% likelihood that the result won’t exceed 3.9%. The “Yeses” at 3.6% and 3.7%, are going for $0.96 and $0.70, by the way.
Despite the modest lift we’ve seen in oil prices in the last few days, I highly doubt weekly gasoline stickers jumped from $3.777 to above $3.85 in just seven days, and for this reason I find the “No” at $3.85 significantly undervalued at $0.43. In fact, because the increase in crude has been slight, as West Texas Intermediate rose less than $10 per barrel from the $67.04 trough on July 2 to the $76.08 peak on July 8, there’s even a chance that the cost has gotten cheaper as the positive lag effects from the sharp slide from March’s $120 may have not reversed to heavier fuel charges at the pump yet, considering that expenses have become lighter for eight consecutive weeks. Besides a $0.07 jump in seven days is a tall bar.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 13, 2026.
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