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Posted August 28, 2026 at 1:00 pm
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech this morning almost doubled the odds of a September hike. After delivering his hawkish presentation in which he emphasized his unwavering commitment to quelling inflation in light of strong economic activity and full employment that warrants policymakers having a single, rather than dual, mandate focus, the probability of an increase next month jumped from 31% to 52%. The repricing follows a July press conference in which the chief seemed to turn towards an increasingly patient approach following June’s message of discipline on the cost front. Today’s update featured a sense of urgency from the central bank leader, pushing the likelihood of a second 25-basis point lift occurring prior to year-end up to 29% from 21%, according to the December “Yes” contract at the 3.875% threshold, which indicates more tightening potentially in the pipeline.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
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