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Posted November 11, 2026 at 1:09 pm
Initial unemployment claims are anticipated to remain subdued, as labor conditions continue to reflect cyclical stability and a lack of layoff appetites. Last Thursday’s print came in at 189k, and heading into tomorrow’s update, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets “Yes” contracts with thresholds of 180k, 185k, 190k and 195k are going for $0.82, $0.62, $0.31 and $0.08, implying a central projection around 186k. But the median estimate in the Reuters poll consisting of 40 forecasters is 195k, meanwhile, amidst minimum and maximum values of 182k and 200k.
Existing home sales have not fallen below 3.8 million seasonally adjusted annualized units since December 2023, 34 months ago. Meanwhile, the “Yes” contract at that threshold is going for just $0.53 within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, which is significantly undervalued in my opinion. Elsewhere, the “Yeses” at 3.7, 3.9, and 4 million are being offered at $0.89, $0.24 and $0.08 against the backdrop of the prior month’s print coming in at 3.99 million. In the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 47 forecasters, the median estimate is 3.85 million, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 3.7 million and 4 million.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 11, 2026.
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Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
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