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Posted August 31, 2026 at 12:57 pm
Tomorrow’s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to accelerate from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, as heavier energy costs have bolstered overall inflation. But in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the 3.1% “Yes” contract is priced at only $0.32, which I find significantly undervalued because this indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning it usually arrives near the consensus expectation. Indeed, it rarely beats or misses expectations by more than 0.1%, and for that reason I don’t envision a figure down at 3.1%. Additionally, I believe the $0.78 “Yes” at 3% is cheap as well, against the backdrop of the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters sporting a minimum projection of 3.1% and a maximum estimate of 3.4%.
Job openings have remained north of 7.35 million for three consecutive months but a decline to 7.3 million is expected in tomorrow’s print for July. I believe there’s a mispricing in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets pertaining to this release, as the “Yes” contract with a 7.2 million threshold, which is well beneath the median estimate, is going for just $0.31. Additionally, I find the “Yeses” at 6.8 million at 7 million attractive at $0.89 and $0.76. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for this specific indicator, however, as it carries an elevated deviation rate because it has varied wildly from the consensus at an above-average rate in the past. Indeed, the monthly Reuters poll of 28 forecasters spans from 7.1 million to 7.62 million.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 31, 2026.
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