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Posted August 28, 2026 at 12:55 pm
A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.
The desert Southwest has the warmest forecasts, with Phoenix at a high of 108°F and Las Vegas at 103°F, while the two West Coast marine stations, San Francisco at 67°F and Seattle at 68°F, are sixty degrees below them.
More details on every station on the map are available here.
The most undervalued contract for Thursday was a Yes on the Los Angeles high above 87 degrees. With 34 hours to go, it was trading at 5 cents, and the high eventually came in at 88 degrees, yielding an 18.2x return net of fees.
At 5:00 pm on Wednesday, the 11 tools forecast a high range from 78°F to 84°F in New York City, yet the high came in below all of them at 77°F. The high was reached at 10:51 AM, and temperatures never progressed higher after that.
There was notable cloud cover for most of the day, and rain began around 11:00 AM, so it appears that the models erred by bringing the clouds and rain in too late relative to what actually occurred.
Jacksonville is among the markets with the largest uncertainty, with thirteen models currently ranging from 82.2°F to 91.1°F on the high.
The overnight low varies by only 1.5°F across these models, indicating they agree on the general airmass temperature but disagree on what will happen in the afternoon, where uncertainty revolves around when and how severe convective thunderstorm activity will be.
The American, Canadian, high-resolution rapid refresh, and National Weather Service models predict sun through midday, with highs near 90°F.
Conversely, the European, German, and Japanese models develop clouds and rain earlier, resulting in highs in the low 80s.
The key thing to watch then will be when storms begin to develop.
Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate and energy markets at ForcastEx can be found here.
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Open a Prediction Markets AccountThe analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Interactive Brokers, its affiliates, or its employees.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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