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Posted September 9, 2026 at 12:41 pm
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lift its key interest rate tomorrow for the second time in 2026 in response to above-target inflationary pressures. Indeed, cost forces accelerated to 3.3% in August, their fastest pace in 3 years. The re-escalation in Middle East hostilities has meaningfully raised energy prices, and since the continent imports its oil and natural gas demands, it’s especially vulnerable to an uptick in fuel charges. For this reason, the 2.4% “Yes” contract is going for $0.98 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, as the consensus firmly believes in a 25-basis point (bp) hike that will land the benchmark yield at 2.65%. But the chance of an outsized 50-bp increase isn’t in the cards, as the 2.65% “Yes” is priced at just $0.02.
August’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany, released on the first of the month came in at 125.85 and can be used to guide trades in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market as they relate to tomorrow’s update. The “Yes” at 125.5 and the “No” at 126 could be attractive options going for $0.96 and $0.91, since the revised figure tends to come in near the initial estimate. The latter contract is more undervalued in my opinion, however, if I had to choose 1, because it’s cheaper and a print of 126.05 would be required for that choice to lose. That’s a tall bar in my view as it represents a sizeable upward adjustment of 0.2 that I don’t see in the cards.
Existing home sales are expected to decline to 3.98 million in August as the recent surge in oil prices has driven up mortgage rates and hampered affordability in the residential real estate sector. Such a result would mark the 3rd month in 2026 of seeing a number beneath a 4-handle. Against this backdrop, I think the “No” at the 4 million threshold within the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market is reasonably priced at $0.52, as I’m anticipating that ongoing valuation gains amidst heavy borrowing costs weighed on closings last month. Meanwhile, the Reuters poll consisting of 41 forecasters carry minimum and maximum projections of 3.9 million and 4.08 million, indicating a narrow range of potential outcomes.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 9, 2026.
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