- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted May 7, 2026 at 1:12 pm
Tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll release data is expected to show an April addition of around 73k workers, according to pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market. The result would be a deceleration from March’s 178k. Indeed, the 50k “Yes” is going for $0.69 while the 100k and 150k “Nos” are offered at $0.64 and $0.85. Participants have been attentive to alternative labor numbers on the economic calendar that have generally signaled healthy conditions conducive to ongoing headcount expansions. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 69 forecasters carries a median of 62k against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of -15k and 150k.
The US unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a 64% chance of a number ahead of 4.2% as well as 96% and 95% probabilities of a figure of 4.1% or higher or a statistic less than or equal to 4.4%. The monthly Reuters poll of 67 forecasters envisions a narrow range of potential outcomes, too, in light of the indicator’s lack of deviation, with a median of 4.3% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 4.2% and 4.4%.
The Canadian unemployment rate is much more volatile than the American one, and pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market reflects that reality. The “No” at the 6.6% threshold is priced at $0.57, while the “Yes” at 6.4% and the “No” at 6.8% are going for $.90 and $0.80, after March’s figure came in at 6.7%. But despite the datapoint’s wild swings in recent years, the monthly Reuters poll of 16 forecasters is pretty narrow, as a median estimate of 6.7% contends with minimum and maximum entries of 6.6% and 6.8%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 7, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
ForecastEx Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures and Prediction Market Contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!