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Posted May 19, 2026 at 12:37 pm
Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is historically volatile, making it difficult to forecast. It sustains an elevated deviation rate, meaning that it has a tendency to arrive well off of the aggregate economist expectation. Emblematic of the past’s wild swings, this Thursday’s print has forecasters all over the place, as the monthly Reuters poll of 8 analysts carries a wide range from 1.8% to 2.8%, with the median at 2%. The Interactive Brokers prediction market, however, prices 67% and 6% likelihoods of numbers coming in ahead of 2% and 2.5%, as the odds point to 1.9% as the most likely headline figure. Meanwhile, the global surge in energy costs is expected to raise the gauge from its first three results of 2026 which were 1.1%, 1.7% and 1.7%, with the degree of the lift characterizing the debate. Those at 2% or below anticipate a minimal impact from crude oil remaining north of $100, while those above 2% project a more meaningful consequence.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 19, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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