- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted November 21, 2025 at 12:54 pm
The contemporary addition of daily contracts to the ForecastEx platform asking whether the highest temperatures in certain major US cities will exceed particular Fahrenheit levels has gained huge popularity in recent days. Emblematic of this traction are north of 160k open contracts that are connected to today’s Nov. 21 expiry so far. The latest excitement has helped push volumes on the predictive platform above 1 million for the third consecutive day on this Friday. At the moment, settlements are available for Austin, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Francisco and Seattle. But it hasn’t been just climate topics that ForecastTraders have been engaging heavily with lately, as there’s been significant interest tied to the Fed’s December rate decision, which political party will gain majority control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures.
NY Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the FOMC, sided with the doves this morning by assuming the organization will take an increasingly accommodative stance. Indeed, his comments today alluded to labor market vulnerabilities currently overwhelming inflation risks. He also opined that the central bank’s posture is currently modestly restrictive, which sent the odds of the “Yes” trade on a rate cut next month from a low of 25% yesterday to a high of 78% today, a significant swing. The enthusiasm for further easing has tempered at the margins, however, with pricing sitting at $0.64 at the moment. Participant interest has been buoyant against the backdrop of elevated volatility, with open contracts tied to the last monetary policy decision of the year at approximately 173k.
Singapore’s CPI has a subdued deviation rate and typically arrives near the consensus expectation, which is why I’m on “Team Yes” at the 0.6% threshold level, which costs what I consider to be an undervalued $0.68. The median estimate is way above at 0.9%, and of the nine forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, none believe a number of 0.6% or under is in the cards, although the lowest projection is 0.7%. The highest is 1.2% and I’m anticipating 1%.
Source for image: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 21, 2025.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
La negociacion de futuros, contratos de eventos y contratos de pronóstico no son adecuados para todos los inversores. Antes de operar con estos productos, por favor lea la divulgación de riesgos de la CFTC. Para una copia visitenos aqui <a href="https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/homepage-disclosures.php
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!