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Posted October 7, 2025 at 11:36 am
We have just listed new government shutdown contracts that expire every week starting on Oct. 10 through Nov. 7. The odds of the funding lapse ending range from 5% to 84% in the five weeks beginning this Friday, with participants increasing their expectation of a resolution as time passes. The probability for Washington to reopen in three days stands at only 5%, but it climbs to 38% and 59% for Oct. 17 and Oct. 24. Chances of an agreement by Halloween and Nov. 7 are considerably higher, at 69% and 84%. Meanwhile, despite recent news that President Trump is considering negotiations with Democrats, there’s still an elevated chance of an extended standoff. Messaging has been quite mixed, as potential concessions coincide with threats of federal layoffs. The GOP wants to pass a bill quickly and work across the aisle to resolve health care topics later, while the Democrats want to promptly address Medicaid cuts and protect health insurance subsides that are scheduled to terminate at year-end.
In election news, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s chances of winning the Big Apple’s mayorship has stabilized in the mid-80s, with only former New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo left on the board. He’s at 14%. Total open contracts for this race have marched above 4.1 million, as this contest continues to be one of our most popular prediction market offerings.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 7, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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