![Check Your Calendar [Spread]](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/05/pod20250506mtkcham_coverimage-700x394.jpg "Check Your Calendar [Spread]")
A forecast contract trade that I like for tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release is buying the “Yes” at the 2.5% threshold and the “No” at the 3.5% level. The forecast contract combination costs a total of $1.54 and would be profitable if tomorrow’s print comes in anywhere from 2.6% to 3.5%, paying out a dollar on each side for a total of $2.00. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate is at 3.3% and February’s result came in at 3.2%. My expectation, however, is at 3.1%, meaningfully below projections, driven by a plunge in energy costs. This is a high-conviction call as I don’t envision a scenario where tomorrow’s print arrives below 2.6% or above 3.5%. But folks, markets are like sports and anything can happen.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 10, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Disclosure: CFTC Regulation 1.71
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