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Posted January 22, 2026 at 1:02 pm
Turbulent developments in Davos involving tariff threats against certain European countries sent the odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US in some capacity up to a record of 61%. But then, a framework set by President Trump and NATO Chief Mark Rutte, whose details remain fluid and uncertain, sparked volatility in this contract, as investors grapple with the sovereignty implications of a greater American presence in the self-governed Danish territory. A common question is whether the White House will be satisfied controlling parts of the world’s largest island without it formally belonging to Washington. The probability is now at a lower 44% following the spike.
Japan CPI “Yes” Is Undervalued
Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) “Yes” is undervalued considering that the median expectation calls for a rise from November’s 113.2 to 113.7 in December. Meanwhile, the “Yes” at 113.2, which represents a 0% month over month (m/m) change versus the 0.4% projected, is only at $0.46. The path to a zero m/m difference or less is very narrow in my opinion as this instrument could deliver north of a double for investors.
Bank of Japan Expected to Keep Rates Steady
Participants are almost 100% sure that the Bank of Japan will not change its interest rate at the decision tomorrow.
UMich 56 “No” Is Undervalued
The University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment revisions have been historically modest, and an upgrade of 2.1 has rarely occurred. Indeed, a final reading of 56 tomorrow is extremely unlikely, and the “No” there should be valued at $0.95, since it requires a bump north of 2 for 54 to become 56.1, which is what’s required for this contract to lose money. It’s going for $0.74 as of this morning.
Singaporean CPI “Yes” Is Undervalued
The Singapore CPI is expected to come in at 1.2% tomorrow, while the range of the 17 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll sport a minimum of 0.9% and a maximum of 1.3%. Against this backdrop, the “Yes” should be closer to $0.83 in my opinion, as a miss of 0.2% is uncommon for this indicator.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 22, 2026.
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