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Posted September 29, 2025 at 12:45 pm
The US government is likely to enter a partial or full shutdown this Wednesday, October 1, with odds hovering at a 73% chance at the moment. On Saturday, the contract traded at a record for this specific event, reaching 81%. Following weeks without meaningful progress between President Trump, GOP officials and Democratic party leaders, negotiators are finally meeting for talks today at the White House. The main areas of concern are Medicaid cuts stemming from the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the upcoming expiration of health insurance subsidies.
Tomorrow’s job openings number is expected to arrive at 7.1 million, according to the economist consensus estimate, but the 50-50 level in our prediction market is at 7.2 million, signaling that participants believe there’s a higher chance of an upside beat compared to a downside miss. Investors may be taking their cue from high-frequency statistics from Indeed, which point to a climb in vacancies rather than a reduction. In consideration of July’s JOLTS number coming in at 7.181 million, if both sources reflect an increase, than the $0.50 “Yes” at 7.2 million would pay out $1.00, unless the gain was marginal and/or July gets revised much lower.
The Baltic Dry Index has been pretty stable in the past few weeks, featuring a 4- week moving average at 2,003. Meanwhile, the figure has been above 1,700 in every publication since July 10 and there’s no evidence of a plunge in the cost of transporting dry materials by sea via ships, which is what the gauge measures. In light of the historical trends and the recent range-bound pattern of crude oil prices, I think the “Yes” contract at 1,700 is undervalued at $0.81.
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