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Posted May 18, 2026 at 12:39 pm
Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market narrowly expect the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires in less than 24 hours. The previous print from last Tuesday came in at $4.50 per gallon, meanwhile, the “Yes” at that particular threshold for tomorrow’s publication is costing $0.47. The pricing signals a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors project the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the “Yeses” at $4.45 and $4.55 are going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.
The ongoing slump in the Canadian real estate sector is expected to continue, as the nation’s New Housing Price Index has only reflected one increase in the past 13 months, in February. Forecasters remain downbeat about tomorrow’s print for April, as it features just a 4% chance of a number above 0, even though 0 is the median estimate for the upcoming publication. Meanwhile, a beat at 0.1% or over would return $1.00 back on a $0.04 investment if it were to come in positive, and that trade looks like an undervalued one to me, simply too cheap to be that close to consensus. Deeper in the minuses, furthermore, participants see 49% and 86% odds of statistics north of -0.2% or -0.4%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 18, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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