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Posted January 14, 2026 at 12:52 pm
Spain’s final December Consumer Price Index is due tomorrow and based on the initial flash reading from approximately 15 days ago, the value should arrive right around 119.9 in light of 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year increases. Against this backdrop, the relatively “safe,” undervalued trades in my opinion would be the “Yeses” at 119 and 119.5, as well as the “No” at 120.5. The three distinct thresholds are priced at $0.86, $0.69 and $0.91 and would all profit on a figure as low as 119.6 or as high as 120.5, offering investors a wide path to capital gains, in my view. Finally, past revisions have been historically modest.
Wall Street’s median expectation for tomorrow’s initial unemployment claims is 215k, but the actual reading can deviate significantly around this time of year due to holiday effects and difficulties seasonally adjusting. In light of the historic volatility, the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 26 forecasters carries a minimum forecast of 205k and a maximum of 235k. And in our prediction market, there’s a 63% chance of a figure exceeding 210k and an 11% likelihood of a number arriving ahead of 230k.
The Bank of Korea is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting as above-target inflation influenced by the nation’s over reliance on cross-border commerce and a volatile currency as a result compel monetary policy officials in Seoul to remain on the safe side. Our participants price the chances of a hold at 94%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 14, 2026. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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