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Posted October 3, 2025 at 12:28 pm
Our prediction market participants project that the US economy will grow an impressive 3.1% in the third quarter, even though this pace would mark a deceleration from the previous period, when GDP came in at 3.8%. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s popular GDPNow gauge reflects steady advancement, pointing to another 3.8% for the upcoming print. Investors that expect that a reeaceleration started in the second-half of this year after the turbulent first six months may want to consider the “Yes” contracts at the 3.1% and 3.5% thresholds. They are priced at $0.50 and $0.33 and would each pay out $1.00 on numbers exceeding 3.1% and 3.5%. The $0.83 total cost for both instruments would deliver $2.00 on a result at 3.6% or greater, or $1.00 on a figure at 3.2% or higher. Furthermore, this series expires upon the release of the final report on December 19, which arrives subsequent to two preliminary estimates. Traders that initiate positions in these contracts, therefore, would collect roughly two and a half months’ worth of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.58% and shift in proportion to changing values as well as movements in the Fed’s benchmark.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
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Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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