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Posted September 4, 2025 at 12:50 pm
My 140k forecast for tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls is well above the consensus estimate of 75k, and in consideration of that dynamic, I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Yeses” at 80k and 130k attractive. They cost $0.47 and $0.08 for a total of $0.55. A print north of 80k would result in a $1.00 pay out for the investor while a number ahead of 130k would deliver $2.00. But keep in mind that expectations for this specific publication are all over the place, and the monthly Reuters poll of 72 forecasters ranges from a low of 0 to a high of 144k.
Economists are expecting a tick up in the US unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, monthly changes have not exceeded +0.2% since the pandemic, over five years ago, so I find the risk-reward dynamic of the “No” at 4.4% attractive; it’s going for $0.93. The path to lose money on this trade is particularly narrow, requiring a 0.3% jump to 4.5%.
Similarly, economists are expecting Canadian unemployment to increase by 0.1% from 6.9% to 7%. But monthly changes in this indicator have been volatile on a relative basis, however, a 0.3% climb is quite rare occurring just a few times in recent history (see chart below). For this reason, I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Nos” at 7.1% and 7.2% attractive, and they are going for $0.89 and $0.96. The path to lose money on this trade is also especially narrow, requiring a 0.3% jump to 7.2%.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 4, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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So what are u advertising you story is all over the place changing like it’s party, are u offering a job, if so, Im interested in the detail and pleas stay focus on the job application. Thanks
Hi Denis, can you please clarify your question?
If you are interested, you can take a look at our Careers page, where we show our current opportunities that are available and open for applicants. https://investors.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=27520