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Posted November 25, 2025 at 12:48 pm
The economic calendar has begun to slowly normalize following the blockage of critical data due to the record-long government shutdown. And with the return of the pivotal statistics we’re witnessing a comeback in forecast orders tied to the results of economic indicators. Tomorrow’s list features new home sales and prices, building permits, the Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index and South Korea’s rate decision. Below I’ll compare some of the expectations according to pricing in the IBKR prediction market as well as how they differ from consensus estimates.
IBKR Forecast Traders and the Wall Street consensus estimate expect a huge slowdown in new home sales. The 800k seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) from August are expected to fall to around 673k, according to the former source, which is calculated by the coin-flip level between the 71% “Yes” at 650k and the 40% “Yes” at 700k. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg median estimate across surveyed economists is 710k.
Prices To Remain Steady However
Forecast traders expect the median price of those new homes sold to remain near August’s $413.5k, since the “Yes” and “No” contract pricing at $410k and $415 of $0.57 and $0.66 indicate a coin-flip level between those two thresholds.
Estimates Are Neck and Neck in Permits
Turning to building permits, the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.34 million SAAU is neck and neck with the 1.34 million coin-flip level on the IBKR ForecastTrader. A result in-line with expectations would mark a modest increase from August’s 1.33 million.
Short-Term Growth to Remain Near Average
Forecast Trader pricing in the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index points to a modest acceleration from the 2.29% indicated for the 7-day period ended on November 14. Indeed, there are 55% odds of a number north of 2.3% hitting the wire, which would also be above the 13-week moving average of 2.27%.
South Korea to Hold Rates Steady
The Bank of Korea is largely expected to keep its rate steady at its meeting this week, with a 95% degree of confidence of an unchanged benchmark. Almost 4,000 contracts are open tied to the decision.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 25, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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