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Posted December 26, 2025 at 12:42 pm
On a day when traditional Wall Street activities were closed, prediction market enthusiasts were active during the Christmas holiday. More than 12 million forecast contracts changed hands with the most popular themes involving climate and cryptocurrencies. The strong engagement is emblematic of the modern asset class’s 24/7 nature and how investors of all types can initiate positions in distinct topics that they know and understand, as well as learn about and dive into new subjects.
President Trump’s recent remarks detailing his opinion that the Supreme Court should uphold his tariff measures have improved those odds meaningfully. Indeed, the 22% chance on Dec. 15, just 11 days ago, is now up to 30% and was as high as 32% on Dec. 18 and 23. Months prior, the likelihood was a coin-flip until a few conservative justices questioned whether the commander in chief was exceeding his authority at a hearing.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s odds of being nominated as Fed Chair have been between 40% and 60% for almost two weeks now, and there’s been modest movement during this Christmas week. Former and current Fed Governors Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller, second and third in line, are currently at 26% and 8%. President Trump’s right-hand man, meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is at just 2%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 26, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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