Industrial production was stronger than expected last month, but IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts with “No” answers to questions asking if year-over-year (y/y) growth would increase 1.5% or more delivered a $1 dollar return. Production climbed 1.4% y/y after advancing 1.9% in January, according to the Federal Reserve. On a month-over-month (m/m) basis, the metric rose 0.7%, exceeding the consensus estimate by a wide margin. The m/m expectation was just 0.2% while January’s result came in at 0.3%. As I was writing yesterday’s publication, prices for winning contracts started at $0.24 for the target of 1.5% and increased for choices with higher thresholds, delivering returns for “Team No.” Among contracts featured in yesterday’s Traders’ Insight article, only two choices with “No” answers — those with hurdles of 1% and 0.5% — were incorrect. They required lower commitments with prices of $0.20 and $0.22, respectively.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: From yesterday’s article, as of the morning of March 17, 2025.
High Conviction Idea for Thursday: Hong Kong CPI
A high-conviction idea for Thursday is Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index exceeding 1.2% y/y for February. January’s figure came in at 2% and the median estimate for this print is 1.8%.
I like the Yes at $0.75; not a homerun but coming in at 1.2% or under is a really tall bar for “Team No.”
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are as of the morning of March 18, 2025.
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