Will the Fed Serve Up a Cut?

The holiday week brings more than turkey; it brings big questions for the markets. Andrew Wilkinson and Steve Sosnick break down the latest Fed chatter, shifting rate-cut odds, and what dissent inside the FOMC could mean for December trading. Plus, we dig into the AI spending spree and whether tech giants are borrowing their way into the future. Will the Fed serve up a cut, or leave investors hungry for more? Tune in for insights, strategy, and a look ahead.

Summary – IBKR Podcasts Ep. 325

The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.

Andrew Wilkinson

Welcome to this week’s podcast. This is Andrew Wilkinson with Interactive Brokers. Joining me, Steve Sosnick, chief Market Strategist, on a shortened holiday week. How are you, Steve?

Steve Sosnick

I’m doing well, Andrew, I’m looking forward to Thanksgiving. How about yourself?

Andrew Wilkinson

Likewise. Steve, the markets had a very rough time last week. It’s been a solid start to this week. A big rally Monday, and Tuesday’s looking kind of middle of the road. What are your thoughts after what was really a heavy week for Wall Street?

Steve Sosnick

Just to be clear, we’re taping this Tuesday morning the 25th just before the open. We’re talking pre-market here. Last week was very much of a risk off mood. And I think you could really chart the turnaround to the comments made by New York Fed President John Williams on Friday. And to a large extent, the stock market has been following the Fed Funds probability. It’s not a coincidence in my mind that the last high for the S&P 500was the date of the last FOMC meeting when Powell threw cold water on the idea of rate cuts every meeting for ad infinitum. And the market definitely reassessed. At worst we were down in the thirties in terms of percentage [for the likelihood of a 25-basis point cut]. I’m referring both to CME [futures] and ForecastEx in terms of the yeses on ForecastEx. Pretty much as soon as Williams said his piece, off we went.

It’s one thing for various other Fed talking heads to say things.  It’s tough to keep track of which regional Fed Presidents are voting members at any given time, and who’s a Governor. Bottom line is, I’ve seen it referred to as the “troika”. You have the Fed Chair Powell, you have the Fed Vice Chair, and you have the head of the New York Fed, which by the way, alone among regional Fed Presidents has a permanent seat at the FOMC. The reason for that is they’re the ones who do actually do the open-market activities that the federal Open Market Committee is supposed to be doing. His view is certainly arguablysecond only to the chair. So, if he comes out that way, the market really changes its perception. And off we went. I do think it’s healthier that the market is following Fed Funds probabilities because at least that’s more fundamental than just following things like bitcoin and other risk assets. I think that the correlation is very clear to me right now.

Andrew Wilkinson

Steve, a couple of months ago you raised the question about the volume of intended spending on AI in the decade ahead. Several big companies have announced bond issuances. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, since September, Amazon Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have issued $90 billion worth, which exceeds the total over the past 40 months. Do you find this AI hyperscaling spend encouraging or discouraging?

Steve Sosnick

Some of each I, I do think that we were a little ahead of the game in flagging this. I think it’s become more of a mainstream concern. Certainly, I think it’s one of the things that Michael Burry of Big Short fame flagged. So, I’d like to think that we were early on this one. I’m still forced to reckon with the fact that this whole ecosystem has yet to really show that there are revenues to accompany all this spending. And let me be very clear, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, these companies just spew cash. These are cash flow generating machines. They make a ton of money, but then you have to ask the question whether the money is being spent productively on AI and therefore is it profitable to borrow against it. You have this cashflow they can service the debt, so the market ate it all up pretty easily, although spreads did widen as they’re starting to differentiate. Oracle is not the cashflow generating machine that the others are, and their debt is rated worse, and their stock and bonds are performing worse. This is something we flagged pretty much from day one, which was their massive sales[forecast] is predicated on a big data center build out.  The big data center build out is predicated on orders from OpenAI to the tune of like $300 billion. The problem is for OpenAI, their revenues this year are projected to be about $20 billion. How are they gonna come up with $60 billion a year for five years off a base like that? It’s an interesting conundrum. The potential gains are so huge that these companies can’t risk being left behind, so they have to spend the money. The problem is, as with any emerging technology, we really don’t know how it’s going to be monetized, and we really don’t know who the winners are going to be. And yes, I find this concerning in the sense that there’s a lot of good money potentially being spent on good things, but also potentially being spent on bad things. It’s very difficult to know the sort out the winners from the losers. And I think ultimately whenever you invest you have to be concerned with your rate of return.  I think in this AI gold rush I think we lost sight of the nuts and bolts of that rate of return instead of just getting fixated on the giant pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Again, this is why the companies that have benefited are the ones who are actually collecting the dough, whether that’s Nvidia, where we can talk about the circularity of deals, or Broadcom, which has actually gotten bigger than Meta in recent weeks because of enthusiasm for their chips. I think I first argued for putting Broadcom in the Mag 7 in January 2024 or thereabouts. And the picks and the shovels manufacturers are still the ones making the money in this gold rush. The question is, what is the mine going to yield in the end?

Andrew Wilkinson

Wise words. We’ve got Tuesday, Wednesday, half a day, Friday, and then next week when investors come back from Thanksgiving it’s December.  You talked about the changing odds on ForecastEx for a rate cutthanks to comments from John Williams at the New York Fed and now Christopher Waller.

I’ve got the sense there is gonna be a rate cut a couple of weeks from now. What does your gut instinct tell us about the pattern for December trading, given it’s just around the corner?

Steve Sosnick

It really depends on as to institutional investors’ desire to either lock in profits or rev up into the year end. One thing about this week that’s a bit odd is we have a month-end on a half-day. That can lead to some very interesting market dynamics.

I’ve written about the idea of, um, window dressing. Sorry, I was grasping for that word. Some readers have written in the comments, “no, that doesn’t happen.” I will tell you, with perfect assurance from when I worked on the sell side –specifically I’m on the sell side again, but when I dealt with a lot of this stuff directly with these institutions directly — they do it at the end of the month, they do it at the end of the quarter, they do it at the end of the year. There’s too much money riding on this stuff for this not to happen. But I don’t know what direction though the window dressing will be because November has been a lousy month. I don’t wanna write off Friday. It has the potential to be very…

Andrew Wilkinson

Exciting. 

Steve Sosnick

… unique afternoon.  Yeah, we’re already definitely getting into pre mode. As for once get into December, I think the tone for the month will be set on December 10th when Chair Powell rolls out there and says, “here’s what I see for interest rates.”

I think it’ll be very interesting to see the tone that comes out of the Fed. I think, by the way, in a self-plug for our platform, the most exciting contract in my mind is the dissent contract. We actually have a contract on ForecastEx for the number of dissenters.

We actually have two contracts. It’s a little tricky to find sometimes because there’s one contract that’s just asks whether there will be dissent or not. That’s about, I think, 97% yes. It’s pretty clear that there will be [at least one dissenter], but then there’s another contract for the number of dissenters. And right now,that number’s basically 50-50-ish around the number three.

It’s 43, 55 — 43% Yes, 55% No. It’s a wider spread than I’d like to see. But the point being we’re seeing market centered around three, and I think that’s an interesting one to keep an eye on and possibly an interesting one to trade around. Because no matter how you slice it there’s gonna be someone unhappy at this Fed meeting among various voting members. And even Steven Miranbasically alluded to this, which is one of the other things that sort of pushed up the “yes” percentage for a cut. It was him saying, “all right, yes, I really want 50[bp], but if it’s a choice of getting 25 or zero, I’m gonna vote 25.”

Andrew Wilkinson

Yes. But so far, he’s been a dissenting vote for the last two meetings ‘because he’s wanted 50. He’s voted against 25 and in favor of 50. So,he’ll be dissenting again.

Steve Sosnick

Which is a change in tune. He says he is not.  Here’s the weird part. If there’s a consensus to do 25, he’s gonna dissent and say, “I want 50.” If there’s really a coin flip as to whether we’re gonna get 0 or 25, he’s gonna vote 25 on the understandable theory that half a loaf is better than none at all.

You can actually have up to five dissenters. It’s a 12-person board, and for seven to five you need seven yeses. So, the question is how you get to yes. 

I think what it does tell us is that we’re for a little more exciting times with it being evident that Powell’s term is over. I don’t wanna use the term “lame duck”because that makes it sound like he’s just phoning it in. I have no reason to believe he’s doing that. But I think there are different political motivations[among the FOMC]. We know that Governor Waller is speaking to and actively lobbying for the job, as is Michelle Bowman.

So, although Waller basically said yes, 25, but unclear about what goes forward. I don’t recall a situation where there’s this many moving parts. And quite frankly, the Wall Street Journal had a story today or yesterday about how rare it is to get this potential level of dissent.

Andrew Wilkinson

And don’t forget, you can check out the I think the nominations is also listed as a contract on ForecastEx, Steve?

Steve Sosnick

Yes. I forgot about that. Yes. Shameless plug division. 

Andrew Wilkinson

That, that’s how former traders like to think.

Steve Sosnick

Exactly.

Andrew Wilkinson

Alright, Steve, thank you very much for your time today. And don’t forget, to the listeners, if you enjoyed today’s session, you can subscribe wherever you download your podcast from. Thanks Steve.

Steve Sosnick

Thanks Andrew. Take care. Happy Thanksgiving.

Andrew Wilkinson

And to you. Bye for now.