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National Blend of Models

Trading Term

The National Blend of Models, abbreviated NBM, is the National Weather Service system that statistically combines dozens of global, regional, deterministic and ensemble weather models into a single gridded forecast. Rather than selecting one model, it weights and bias-corrects contributors according to their historical performance, and its output is then adjusted by human forecasters and compiled into the National Digital Forecast Database at a few-kilometer resolution. Because it is the default public forecast source for United States locations, it is frequently used as the anchor against which market participants look for deviations.

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