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Model Output Statistics

Trading Term

Model output statistics, abbreviated MOS, is a technique that corrects raw numerical weather model output by comparing historical forecasts against what was actually observed at a specific station and applying the resulting statistical relationships. This addresses the systematic biases that arise because a physical model forecasts conditions for a grid box rather than for the point where a station sits. The tradeoff is that a statistical correction is anchored in past situations, so MOS systems can perform less well in weather regimes with few historical analogs, whereas raw physical models remain applicable to configurations they have never encountered.

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