- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted October 13, 2026 at 4:54 pm
Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to feature the first acceleration since May, as heavier fuel costs lifted the rate of inflation. The increase, predominantly due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, has resulted in much higher bond yields impacting borrowing dynamics while generating some nervousness on Wall Street about potential volatility on the horizon. Additionally, it has materially worsened the chances of the Republican party’s ability to hold both chambers of Congress during next month’s midterm elections. September’s figure is expected to ramp up to 3.6% from 3.4% in August, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 55 forecasters, which does carry a minimum and maximum projection of 3.1% and 4.1%. Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, offer the 3.5%, 3.6% and 3.7% “Yes” for $0.87, $0.55 and $0.12.
The core version of the CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, is anticipated to feature an acceleration as well, as August’s 2.4% reading climbs to the median estimate of 2.5% in September, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 54 forecasters. But a key difference in the projections is that the range of expectations here sports a narrow width between 2.3% and 2.5%, indicating an ongoing limited spread from the lift in fuel costs to overall charges in the economy. Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets prices the 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.6% “Yeses” at $0.96, $0.52 and $0.05.
Investors should consider the $0.62 “Yes” at 4% corresponding to Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product because its far beneath the most bearish projection in the monthly Reuters poll. Additionally, it would be the first time in last 4 occurrences of a print arriving at 4% or under, as economic activity has been quite buoyant in the city-state. Furthermore, of the 12 forecasters participating in the survey, the expectations ranged from 5.3% to 5.9%.
Spain’s CPI rose 0.3% month over month from 104.638 to 104.9519 in September, which rounds up to 105, but tomorrow’s revision could change that. Against this backdrop the “Yes” at 105 carries a price of $0.22 within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the afternoon of October 13, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
New to Prediction Markets?
Open a Prediction Markets AccountInformation posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Futures, event contracts, and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy, visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!