New Home Sales 600K “No” Going For Just $0.20: Sept. 23, 2026

New home sales last month are expected to have recovered from July’s 607k, as the “No” Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 600k threshold is being offered for just $0.20. The report, to be released tomorrow morning, has a consensus expectation of 615k from a Reuters poll of 43 economists who have provided minimum and maximum estimates of 575k and 666k. But recent real estate indicators depict a great deal of weakness, as elevated mortgage rates alongside lofty valuations generate a significant affordability problem. And due to the softening trends, I believe a number under the 600k threshold is in the cards. It would be the weakest figure since January’s 576k. Furthermore, the “No” at 600k is undervalued, in my view, as it should be closer to $0.40. Meanwhile, the “No” at 650k is going for $0.82. Separately, the median sales price is projected to be around $400k, as the “Yeses” at $390k, $400k and $410k are at $0.83, $0.51 and $0.30 for that distinct Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract.

Initial Unemployment Claims Expected Around 200K

Initial unemployment claims are expected to remain suppressed as layoff appetites are low and economic growth is buoyant, warranting headcount increases rather than declines. After 196k last week, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets are pricing in the at least “Yeses” at 190k, 195k, 200k, 205k and 210k at $0.89, $0.58, $0.50, $0.16 and $0.03. Similarly, the Reuters poll of 36 forecasters stands at a median of 201k, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 185k and 250k. Indeed, someone is anticipating a substantial increase to a level we haven’t touched in over a year.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 23, 2026. 

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