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Posted September 3, 2026 at 12:15 pm
Prediction market ForecastEx weighs in on Hawaii’s Small but Nontrivial Risk of a Major Hurricane Landfall from Hurricane Lowell.
Hurricane Lowell is a Category 4 hurricane (145 mph) moving at about 10 mph, about 450 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii – one of three tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific right now.
The ForecastEx prediction market has a contract asking: Will a major (Category 3+) hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? (To count as landfall, the eye must intersect land; close bypasses do not count.)
In the historical record from 1949 to 2025, such an event has happened only once, with Hurricane Iniki in 1992. If we take that frequency as the climatological probability, it’s a 1.3% annual chance. With the emergence of Hurricane Lowell, however, ForecastEx has a chance of four to five times that – closer to 5%.
Lowell is currently being held on a westward heading by a ridge to its north, but that ridge is forecast to break up this weekend. At that point, Hurricane Karina to the north could essentially pull Lowell north, steering it over Hawaii.
Image from Tropical Tidbits.
What typically protects Hawaii from major hurricanes is cooler sea surface temperatures. These temperatures are warming over the long run due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, but they are also slightly elevated in the region due to the emerging super El Niño. Still, sea surface temperatures around Hawaii are not warm enough to support major hurricanes for long. Thus, the key dynamic is the abrupt right turn and acceleration of forward motion that would allow Lowell to reach Hawaii before it has time to weaken substantially over the cooler waters.
This same situation is almost exactly what allowed Hurricane Iniki to make landfall as a major Hurricane in 1992.
It will be very interesting to watch the ForecastEx prediction market on a major hurricane landfall in Hawaii, both for its information value and the risk-hedging applications of these contracts.
Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate, and energy markets at ForecastEx is available here.
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Open a Prediction Markets AccountThe analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Interactive Brokers, its affiliates, or its employees.
Futures, event contracts, and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy, visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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