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27% Chance Bitcoin Sees 100k Before 2027, Consider Singapore’s 2% CPI “Yes” at $0.51, Since Consensus is at 2.3%: Aug. 21, 2026

27% Chance Bitcoin Sees 100k Before 2027, Consider Singapore’s 2% CPI “Yes” at $0.51, Since Consensus is at 2.3%: Aug. 21, 2026

Posted August 21, 2026 at 1:18 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets have seen heavy activity related to bitcoin in recent weeks and the cryptocurrency jumped to a 3-month high today just short of 80k. As investors have somewhat rotated out of Treasuries, AI stocks and overall equities in recent sessions, the odds of bitcoin climbing to 100k, 110k or 120k by year-end have risen materially, reaching 32%, 21% and 13% this session before retreating modestly.

Potentially Undervalued CPI Contract at 2%

Singapore’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to climb from 1.9% year over year in June to 2.3% in July; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market offers the 2% “Yes” at what I consider to be an undervalued $0.51. The 13 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll submitted minimum and maximum projections of 2% and 2.5%, indicating that the consensus agrees with that threshold warranting a price closer to $0.80. Furthermore, this indicator carries a subdued deviation rate, as results typically arrive near the median estimate and tend not to surprise much. Over and under, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 1.6% and 2.4% are going for $0.96 and $0.07.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 21, 2026. 

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