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Dear Investor,
You may be familiar with the four-year cycle, also known as the election cycle, which is characterized by the presidential elections that take place every four years.
Did you know that the election cycle also exists for other instruments such as gold?
Things are getting interesting right now. The current year, 2026, is a midterm election year. And gold performs very well in midterm election years: for gold, the midterm election year is the best year in the four-year cycle!
Let’s look at the results of a gold investment in each year of the four-year cycle. The table shows the average performance of gold in election years, post-election years, midterm election years, and post-election years, in US dollar terms, starting in 1968.
| Four-year cycle: Gold performance since 1968 | |||
| Election year | Post-election year | Midterm election year | Post-election year |
| 3,94% | 5,28% | 11,09% | 9,68% |
You can clearly see that the years with midterm elections – such as 2026 – performed best with 11.09%. But the years following the general election – such as the upcoming 2027 – also fared well with 9.68%.
But what does a midterm election year look like in detail? After all, we’re already halfway through the year. Take a look at the chart. It shows you the seasonal trend of gold only in years that are midterm election years.
As you can see, in midterm election years, gold prices typically rise sharply starting in July. This increase, characteristic of midterm election years, lasts until February of the following year.
The situation for gold is therefore improving cyclically from now on. The weakness of the past few months could now be replaced by an upward movement!
As you can see, Seasonax offers you much more than just annual seasonality. Use Seasonax ‘s filter function if you want to see how an instrument performs over a four-year cycle or any other cycle. You’ll find the filter switch in the upper right corner of each seasonal chart.
After clicking, the redesigned filter menu opens. With it, you can assess the cyclical market situation and apply all kinds of filters in just a few clicks.
This allows you to instantly see the typical price movements of specific years, such as midterm election years, for all instruments, in addition to the annual seasonality, with just a few clicks. Alternatively, you can filter for individual years that exhibit particular characteristics. This way, you can further improve your trading results.
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Originally Posted July 21, 2026 – The Midterm-Year Rally in Gold
Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. Seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. Seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by Seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. Seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Seasonax and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Seasonax and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
U.S. Spot Gold trading through IB LLC accounts is only available to legal residents of the United States that do not reside in Arizona, Montana, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.
Investments in certain commodities (precious metals) may be subject to significant price volatility and often involve risks related to market fluctuations, liquidity constraints, geopolitical events, and changes in global economic conditions that could adversely affect their value.
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