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Posted May 14, 2026 at 10:30 am
In this market commentary, Jim Iuorio of JI Financial examines the technical state of the Nasdaq as of May 2026. Using the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a primary gauge for market momentum, Jim identifies a recurring “danger zone” when prices stretch 7.5% to 8.5% above this key trendline. We look back at historical precedents from the 2022 bear market rally and the AI-driven surges of 2024 and 2025 to show how overextended momentum can lead to increased volatility or sharp consolidations. While bull markets can remain irrational longer than anticipated, the combination of technical overextension and fundamental headwinds—specifically a 3.8% CPI print fueled by energy costs—suggests a challenging environment for retail traders entering new long positions. Insights from Jim Iuorio.
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Originally Posted May 13, 2026
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I looked at the S&P 500 and Nasdaq charts going back to 1993. The only other time the indexes were this far above their moving averages? 1999. The stock market is in the midst of another huge bubble and I am absolutely certain you will see the S&P below 5000 again. Maybe 4000. The QQQ will get demolished.