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Posted May 1, 2026 at 9:47 am
The midterm elections are approaching this November and the Democratic party has been improving its odds throughout the year in Senate, House and Gubernatorial races. The most significant shift has been in the Senate, as the GOP had a 73% chance of maintaining its majority at the beginning of 2026, but those probabilities are now down to a coin-flip, as the Democrats have caught up. The House of Representatives has been less eventful, although the Democrats started the year with a 75% likelihood that has expanded to as high as 87% in recent days. Conversely, the governorship contests have been tighter, with the blue coalition expected to win 16 states while the red alliance is projected to be victorious in 14 of them. Meanwhile, six states are tossups, with both sides of the political aisle neck and neck in those matches.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 30, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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