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Posted April 15, 2026 at 12:53 pm
Forecasters are expecting solid US economic data tomorrow morning with initial unemployment claims, the weekly economic index and industrial production on deck. For initial claims, there’s a 59% chance of a number north of 210k and 73% odds of a result coming in beneath 221k. Over and under, there’s a 10% probability of a statistic failing to exceed 200k and a 10% likelihood of a print arriving ahead of 230k. The pricing signals continued confidence of subdued layoffs and stable labor conditions by participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, which is generally in-line with economist consensus estimates for this specific indicator.
The Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index is projected to reflect continued buoyancy tomorrow afternoon with a 37% chance of a number north of 2.8%, a feat that was conquered in two out of the four last weeks. Meanwhile, there’s a 71% likelihood of a figure arriving ahead of 2.6% and 79% odds of a statistic coming in south of 3.1%. Overall, growth rates near 2.7% are terrific and signal confidence by Interactive Brokers prediction market participants of the ongoing resilience of the US economy.
Pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market as it relates to the upcoming industrial production release points to an extended expansion in the manufacturing sector, as the space benefits from last year’s passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and its associated capital expenditure investment incentives. The 1.1% “Yes” is going for $0.85 while the 2.1% “No” is offered at $0.84, placing the projection near the economist consensus estimate of 1.6% and marking a probable acceleration from the prior print’s 1.4%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 15, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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