President Trump says Iran has asked for ceasefire, but…

Briefing.com Summary:

*President Trump says the Iranian president asked for a ceasefire and notes he will consider it when the Strait of Hormuz is open, free, and clear.

*Retail sales and private sector employment were both better than expected.

*Oil prices continue to slide as traders hold out hope for increased shipping activity through Strait of Hormuz.

The stock market found its way to higher ground yesterday amid reports that suggested both the U.S. and Iran might be trying to find their way to higher ground in terms of ending the military hostilities.

The timing was ideal for a rebound effort. The S&P 500 had declined for five straight weeks; several of the indices had entered correction territory (down 10% from prior high); and every sector, except energy, was down sharply for the month. 

In short, the stock market was oversold on a short-term basis, and it was the last day of the month and quarter, which is a prime rebalancing time, so the market was more responsive than it has been recently to signaling from President Trump that the war could end soon. 

And buyers responded. The market had its best day yesterday since May 2025, and it is aiming to come back for more today.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 128 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 170 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Sliding oil prices continue to be a “peace offering” for buyers, as they convey an expectation that the war could end soon but, more importantly, that oil and other goods could start moving freely again through the Strait of Hormuz. The latter is no guarantee at this juncture. All we are saying is that market participants are working to manifest that outcome.

President Trump recently posted to Truth Social that the Iranian president asked for a ceasefire. President Trump stated that he will consider a ceasefire when the Strait of Hormuz is open, free, and clear, but until then, the U.S. will be “blasting Iran into oblivion.”

We should learn more about this situation tonight when President Trump addresses the nation about the Iran war at 9:00 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, we have learned that Nike (NKE) is still struggling with its turnaround effort. Shares of the Dow component are down 11% in pre-market action following an earnings report that featured disappointing fiscal Q4 guidance, highlighted by an expectation for Greater China revenues to be down approximately 20%.

We have also learned that private-sector hiring in March was better than expected, while the same was true for February retail sales. That has prompted some upward adjustment in Treasury yields. The 2-yr note, at 3.74% overnight, is at 3.80% now, and the 10-yr note yield, at 4.26% overnight, is at 4.33% now.

According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 62,000 jobs in March (Briefing.com consensus: 42,000) following an upwardly revised 66,000 (from 63,000) in February. That was split fairly evenly between the goods-producing and service-providing sectors; however, it was driven entirely by small businesses, which added 85,000 jobs.

Total retail sales jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.1% decline (from -0.2%) in January. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) after being unchanged in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed solid spending activity across most kinds of retail businesses. The strength of the report is apt to be diluted, however, by the recognition that it preceded the hefty increase in gasoline prices and the sharp decline in stock prices in March that are expected to keep discretionary spending in check.

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Originally Posted April 1, 2026 – President Trump says Iran has asked for ceasefire, but…