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Posted March 24, 2026 at 12:48 pm
As the midterms approach and odds shift for who will secure governor, Senate and House seats across the country, so are the chances of who will win the nominations for the Republican and Democratic parties to compete in the 2028 presidential contest. For the GOP, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and current President Donald J. Trump are sporting the highest likelihoods of 36%, 28% and 6%. The Democrats, meanwhile, are led by California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York House of Representatives Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who carry prospects of 28%, 10% and 10%. The Dems have a wider selection of candidates relative to their counterparts, however, with Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, Pete Buttigieg and Wes Moore at 9%, 6%, 6% and 2%. Finally, the final race is essentially a dead heat, with the Dems maintaining a slim advantage against the GOP although both parties have near 50% probabilities of controlling the White House.
Source for images: ForecastEx
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