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Posted March 19, 2026 at 1:10 pm
The GOP’s chances of maintaining a majority in the Senate after the upcoming midterm elections have fallen from 73% at the start of the year to 54% today as consumer sentiment remains in the tombs due to elevated inflation, restrictive interest rates, reduced job openings, the Iran war and a perception that tariffs are raising price pressures. President Trump’s approval ratings have suffered as a result, and that has also weighed on the Republican Party’s prospects in this year’s elections. However, it is typical to see the side in power lose seats in the congressional contests two years after its nominee for head of state wins at the ballots. Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, the Democrats continue to maintain a sizeable advantage of 82%, up from 75% at the start of the 2026.
Tomorrow’s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index is expected to arrive around 1.3%, with participants pricing a number above 1% at 93% while considering a figure that fails to exceed 1.5% with an 82% degree of confidence. But there could be an opportunity here for the “Yeses” at the higher threshold, as the monthly Reuters poll of 7 forecasters carries a median estimate of 1.6% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 1.4% and 1.7%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 19, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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