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Posted March 17, 2026 at 12:12 pm
Tomorrow’s central bank decisions featuring the US Fed, Bank of Canada (BoC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) include elevated degrees of confidence of 96% or higher that the institutions will keep rates unchanged. Monetary policy officials from around the globe are highly attentive to the recent surge in energy prices and the associated risk to their inflation mandates. For this reason, policymakers are increasingly likely to maintain existing short-term costs of capital or begin hiking, with fewer opting to reduce their respective benchmarks.
There’s a high likelihood that the Fed decision will feature a formal disagreement from one of the voting members, however, as Governors Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller and/or Stephen Miran may prefer to drop the benchmark by 25-basis points in light of labor market risks. Indeed, there’s a 97% chance of at least one dissenter while there are 29% and 50% probabilities of exactly one or two dissenters opting for a different move than the majority.
Tomorrow’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to arrive around 3%, according to participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market. There’s a 41% percent chance of a result above 3% as well as a 59% likelihood of a figure that fails to exceed that threshold. When looking at levels under and over, there are 11% odds of a statistic north of 3.5% and a 6% feasibility of a print at 2.5% or lower.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 17, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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