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Posted December 18, 2025 at 12:30 pm
Yesterday’s trading on ForecastEx featured 3.3 million contracts being transacted with the most popular themes including the daily high temperatures across US cities, futures prices of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial indices and the Bitcoin and Solana cryptocurrencies. But two other topics that made the list of 10k instruments or more being traded during the December 17 session included who the Republican Party will nominate for US President in 2028 as well as the US Dollar Japanese Yen currency pair. Indeed, there were 31 separate transactions of Secretary of State Marco Rubio going through with “No” prices ranging from $0.90 to $0.99 across the 17.5k contracts exchanged. Someone is essentially taking the position of the former Florida senator not standing a chance in the primary. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY saw 11.8k contracts change hands, likely a result of the nation’s interest rate decision later tonight, which is heavily expected to feature a hike. Indeed, the commentary for future moves could certainly shift foreign exchange markets.
Tomorrow’s University of Michigan (UMich) Consumer Sentiment revision is likely to fall in the normal range of +1 or -1, as a +3.8 upgrade has never occurred. The initial figure of 53.3 is almost certainly not going to exceed 57, and a +3.8 adjustment is what’s required for “Team No” to lose at that level. The “No” costs $0.95 and is undervalued in my view since it should be off the board.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 18, 2025.
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