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Posted December 5, 2025 at 1:19 pm
Volumes on the ForecastEx platform continue to trend north, with yesterday’s total number of transactions coming in at 3.03 million. The top single pairing on Dec. 4 was an exchange of 50k contracts featuring a buyer of a “Yes” at $0.73 and a separate purchaser of a “No” at $0.28 for the question asking if the Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. The block trade executed at 10:12 am ET. Meanwhile, the other themes with heavy interest didn’t surprise, as participants continued to engage with daily high and low temperatures across cities, the Fed’s decision this Wednesday and whether Kevin Hassett will be nominated to be the next Chair of the US central bank.
Consumer Sentiment came in at 53.3 today and given the index’s subdued revision rate, there are undervalued opportunities as they relate to the final reading to be released on December 19 in my opinion. The “Yes” at 49 and the “Nos” at 55, 57 and 59 offer favorable risk-reward dynamics in my opinion; they’re going for $0.94, $0.52, $0.78 and $0.95. A rare revision amounting to -4.3 or + 1.75 would be needed for any of these trades to lose money. I also featured the last release of the sentiment index in October.
The government’s reopening and lightening inflation expectations likely drove an increase in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index later in the month too. And November’s 88.7 result is unlikely to fall, which is why I believe the “Yes” at 88 is undervalued at $0.73.
The Australian central bank is expected to hold rates steady with a 93% degree of confidence at its meeting on Monday in light of stronger consumer demand and a sharp recovery in the housing sector. There is a 7% chance of a 25-basis point cut against the backdrop, however.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 5, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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