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Posted November 12, 2025 at 12:52 pm
With the House of Representatives on track to vote on the bill that would reopen the government tonight at 7:00 PM ET, odds of an imminent resolution remain elevated. The probability corresponding to an end to the shutdown by this Friday is currently at 90%. Meanwhile, I think the likelihood should be closer to 96%, in light of the slim GOP majority in the lower chamber likely to all choose to advance the legislation against the backdrop of President Trump and leaders of the conservative Freedom Caucus within the Republican Party backing the proposal.
Tomorrow’s Weekly Economic Index from the Dallas Fed is likely to remain range-bound with a downward bias reflecting decelerating labor conditions. It’s highly unlikely that the economy accelerated during a 7-day period from 2.22% to 2.6%, while it’s also improbable that the cycle decelerated down to 1.8% throughout this short time frame, a level that has only been breached once this year in June. For those reasons, the combination trade pairing the “Yes” at 1.8% and the “No” at 2.6% offers a favorable risk-reward dynamic in my opinion. It’s priced at a total of $1.74 and would deliver $2.00 on a number as low as 1.81% or as high as 2.6%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 12, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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