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Posted November 10, 2025 at 12:51 pm
Our prediction market is signaling an end to the government shutdown this week. Odds that Washington will reopen by this Friday the 14th traded at a low of just 40% yesterday before soaring to a fresh high of 95% earlier today. Enthusiasm has tempered modestly, however, as traders priced in the subdued chance that the final bill could fail in the House of Representatives after experiencing success in the upper chamber. Indeed, it was a few Senate Democrats deciding to support the GOP’s proposed agreement that is bolstering the probability of an imminent resumption, which now stands at an elevated 87%. Trading has been heavily active in these instruments, as north of 70,000 contracts are currently open that are tied to a settlement by this Friday or seven days later on Nov. 21.
It’s highly unlikely that gasoline prices rose from $3.019 to $3.10 in just a few days, a sharp climb requiring an $0.081 or 2.68% increase in just seven days. Advances exceeding 8 cents are rare, occurring just once this year and in 2024. Meanwhile, trading in gasoline and crude oil futures don’t support a jump of that magnitude, since the former’s performance is approximately +1.9% during the period while the latter is -1.8%. Furthermore, movements in those markets are more volatile than retail gasoline prices and adds credence to the belief that the “No” at $3.10 is undervalued at $0.90.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 10, 2025.
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It would be crazy for democrats to fold without a Healthcare resolution. The electorate seems to side with democrats on this issue. Giving in would theoretically cause voters to give up on democrats fighting for them. Republicans won’t gain popularity but any support they retain will vote while democrat supporters will be more prone to not voting.