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Posted November 6, 2025 at 1:00 pm
Yesterday’s Supreme Court hearing featured several conservative judges debating President Trump’s authority to implement broad tariffs. Immediately, prediction market participants realized that the White House may not receive the five votes required to maintain its global trade policy despite a GOP appointed majority of 6-3 in the court’s composition. The forecast contract question asking if the Supreme Court would uphold Trump’s tariffs by July 31, 2026, was priced with a probability as high as 46% yesterday, before falling to a low of 21% and then rebounding to its current 28% level.
Forecasters are confident that the government will reopen this month, with probabilities of 40% and 85% corresponding to the shutdown ending by the 14th or by the 21st. The 50-50 mark, meanwhile, falls on Nov. 16, meaning that there are coin-flip odds of a resolution prior to that date relative to an agreement occurring afterwards.
In the past 11 years, Canada’s unemployment has only risen by 0.3% on a month over month basis a handful of occasions when excluding the times surrounding the recessionary periods of 2008 and 2020. I believe a jump from the current 7.1% level up to 7.4% is extremely unlikely, and my economist colleagues feel the same way. Indeed, the monthly Reuters poll of 17 forecasters stands at a median of 7.1% for tomorrow’s print alongside a minimum projection of 7% and a maximum expectation of 7.2%. For those reasons, I find the risk-reward profile of the “No” at 7.3% attractive; it’s going for $0.94.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 6, 2025.
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