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Posted October 8, 2025 at 12:36 pm
Tomorrow’s Weekly Economic Index from the Dallas Fed isn’t suspended due to the government shutdown because central banking activities aren’t subject to congressional funding. Meanwhile, the contract related to the week ended Oct. 4 included four days of the closure and my hunch is that conditions decelerated during that time span. In consideration of my 2.3 estimate, I like the risk-reward profile of the “No” answer at 2.6, priced at $0.62. Despite the previous figure of 2.4, 2.6 hasn’t been exceeded for nine consecutive weeks and I don’t envision that in this print. Additionally, I find the “Nos” from 2.8% up to 3.2%, which range from $0.87 to $0.96, undervalued.
Initial unemployment claims won’t be released tomorrow due to the shutdown but I find the “Yes” at 220k undervalued at $0.65. In the past eight weeks of data, it’s only failed to exceed that level once. Meanwhile, signs of labor marker deceleration are evident, pointing to an increasing likelihood of “Team Yes” being correct here when the figure is published.
Current probabilities for the end of the government shutdown contracts on Oct. 17 and Oct. 24 are 37% and 59%, pointing to forecast traders expecting a reopening date around Oct. 21.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 8, 2025. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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