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Posted August 22, 2025 at 12:23 pm
The residential real estate market remains extremely weak and it’s tough to envision it producing the strongest new home sales number in over three years, or since February 2022. For this reason, I find the risk-reward profiles of the “No” answers at 750k, 775k and 800k attractive. The levels are going for $0.90, $0.95 and $0.95. Furthermore, of the 18 forecasters surveyed by Reuters, the median estimate is 630k while the maximum is 670k.
For the median price of new homes sold, I don’t see a path to falling to the lowest level in over four years, since June 2021. Cost trends have been softening, but my expectation stands at $410k and a move to $380k is quite a stretch. I find the risk-reward profile of the “Yes” at $380k attractive at $0.94.
Singapore’s Consumer Price Index has failed to exceed 0.9% year over year for five consecutive months and Monday is expected to mark the sixth. I’m in line with the consensus at 0.7% and of the nine forecasters surveyed by Reuters, the maximum and minimum projections are 0.6% and 0.8%. The path to a 1% figure here is particularly narrow, making the “No” at 0.9% appear undervalued from my perspective.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 22, 2025. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “No” answers throughout different levels.
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