Markets Gain Cautiously as Investors Await Huge CPI: Aug. 11, 2025

A plethora of key economic data points are set to be released this week but the schedule kicks off with most significant one, tomorrow morning’s CPI. Stocks and yields are appreciating cautiously ahead of the big numbers as investors await the results, which have the potential to move the needle on Fed rate cut expectations and could strongly signal a reduction at the central bank’s September meeting. Indeed, recent gains in Treasuries and equities alike have been strengthened by anticipations that the monetary policy authority will resume its walk down the stairs next month and evidence supporting the doves is likely to bolster further advances. But developments pointing to tariffs beginning to propel cost pressures can certainly pare market enthusiasm, especially during a weak seasonal period. While trading in stocks and the fixed-income complex has been relatively quiet in the morning, although both have started to climb more meaningfully around noon, the greenback, volatility protections instruments, bitcoins, crude oil and forecast contracts are catching strong bids. The other major commodities are selling off however.

All Eyes on Tariff Effects on Prices and Fiscal Revenues

I’m anticipating that tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will climb 2.76% and there’s potential that we see a downside surprise at 2.7% due to rounding effects. Meanwhile, I don’t believe that tariffs will motivate much inflation going forward, since the levies effect a less significant area of the economy, namely core goods. But an advantage of the duties is the revenues that they are beginning to bring in, helping to quell fiscal deficit concerns, subdue term premiums and contain interest rate pressures. The estimates on how much will eventually reach the government’s coffers are all over the place, but curbing the increase of the Treasury’s debt load is an often-overlooked benefit of the Trump administration’s trade policies. Today’s news though of major semiconductor manufacturers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreeing to pay 15% of their sales from Chinese AI chip transactions to Washington is enlightening the situation. Finally, controlled inflation that motivates the Fed to cut, resulting in reaccelerating hiring alongside tariff revenues are a terrific landscape for corporate earnings, equity market performance and economic growth.

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International Roundup

China’s CPI Increases Following June’s Decline

After sinking 0.1% month over month (m/m) in June, China’s Consumer Prices Index rose 0.4% last month, marginally surpassing the economist consensus estimate of 0.3%. The country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) maintains that the uptick is a result of government measures to expand demand. Relative to July of last year, the gauge was flat after climbing 0.1% year over year (y/y) in June. Economists expected deflation of 0.1%. Within the y/y metric, food prices were down 1.6% following June’s 0.3% decline. Separately, gate prices descended 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y, according to Saturday’s release of the Producer Price Index. The NBS attributes the weak numbers to global trade uncertainties and seasonal factors.

While Car Sales Growth Slows

A government crackdown on a pricing war and slowing demand for hybrid vehicles caused new car sales in China to grow only 6.9% y/y last month after jumped 18.6% in June, according to the China Passenger Car Association. With advancements in pure-electric cars easing range anxiety, demand for plug-in hybrids fell 3.6% y/y. The broader category of new energy vehicles, which includes electric only and plug-in hybrids, expanded 12%, slowing from 29.7% during the sixth month of the year, but the result outpaced gasoline cars.

Canada Investors: GDP is Below Potential

The Market Participants Survey has found that 84.6% of Canadian investors believe that the country’s economic growth is below its capacity and view the potential for increased trade tensions as the biggest risk to gross domestic product (GDP). In May, Statistics Canada reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 0.5%. GDP is expected to grow only 0.8% y/y as of the end of this year and 1.8% by the end of 2026, according to the median response of survey respondents. Regarding the top three risks, 89% of investors said increased trade tension is the biggest concern. Weaker consumer spending and an anemic housing market also made the top-three category. Encouragingly, the median expectations for headline CPI inflation for this year and 2026 are 2.2% and 2%. Regarding monetary policy, the median response regarding the next central bank cut to the key interest rate is for a September reduction from 2.7% to 2.50%. The median expectation for a subsequent 25 bps cut is for December.