- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted August 1, 2025 at 12:00 pm
Zohran Mamdani’s chances of becoming the next New York City mayor have increased significantly in the past few days. Indeed, the current 77% probability is signaling strong odds that he will win the general election on November 4, 2025. Former governor Andrew Cuomo is the only other candidate in the double digits; he’s at 11%. Present-day mayor Eric Adamas and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa are at 8% and 4% respectively. 1.841 million forecast contracts linked to this race are open at the moment.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 1, 2025.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
THIS PROBABILITY CITED COMES FROM WHERE? IBKR INVESTORS? IF I RAN A FINANCIAL FIRM I WOULD NOT EMBARASS MY FIRM BY TRYING TO DECIDE SUCH NON-FINANCIAL QTS.
@JoeGeronimo – I was thinking the same thing and asking the same questions.
I do not believe IB tried to figure anything out – they just reported based on the contract from ForecastTraders : “The November mayoral election is a hot topic among IBKR ForecastTraders with more than 1 million contracts tied to the New York City race being traded. The predictive marketplace points to a 68% chance of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani”
Can the people in New York be that idiotic to elect Mamdani? Good grief….
Yes, as 99.9% of the people who will vote for him are looking forward to free everything, no taxes for them, and millions saved by disbanding the NY Police Dept. I would vote for him too, but have a moral conscience, won’t qualify for any freebies, and will be too busy working anyway to save up before I am taxed out of existence- or beaten to death by the emboldened crazy people who want even more freebies- as well as so terrified to think of what his election would mean that I need to sit down and get a cold drink to get a hold of myself.
Does NYC let illegals vote in local elections? Is that why they were/are paying illegals around $4000/month to live in NYC, to vote this communist in power?
The White population of NYC is 30.6 % if you haven’t bought a house in Florida yet you better hurry up.