September Surprise: Tech Rallies Against the Odds

Jeff Praissman sits down with Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading to unpack Oracle’s unexpected rally, the resilience of the AI trade, and what it all means for investors this September. They also dive into jobs data, inflation numbers, and how the Fed’s next move could shape markets heading into year-end.

Summary – IBKR Podcasts Ep. 293

The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.

Jeff Praissman 

Hi everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with the Interactive Brokers Podcast. It’s my pleasure to welcome back Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading. Hey Scott, how are you? 

Scott Bauer 

I am great, Jeff. How about you? 

Jeff Praissman 

I’m doing well, and I love these Wednesdays when you pop into our studio for our five-minute conversations on the market. For our listeners, you can find more from Scott at prospertrading.com and also on our website. So Scott, obviously a crazy day with Oracle. We were just discussing before the recording that we’ve never really seen anything like this in recent memory, at least not that large. 

Scott Bauer 

It certainly was not on my bingo card. I’m sure it wasn’t on yours, and it’s not on anybody’s I know about. It’s absolutely stunning. I think this goes into a little bit of a bigger picture because last week we saw tech stocks really on their heels. They had a big decline, and a lot of people were saying the AI trade was over — cloud stocks, blah, blah, blah. And then all of a sudden, here we are. Yes, Oracle is leading this rally today, but I think what we’ve seen is that the AI trade is not over. Now maybe you have to be a little bit more selective on some of the stocks. It’s not 2000, right? It’s not the NASDAQ of 2000 where any of these companies with out-there valuations were going to do well. But the big players — man, oh man — they’re just killing it, Jeff. 

Jeff Praissman 

I know. It’s funny, five calendar days ago it was the largest single-day decline, and now we have this. Also, that day — September 5th — the employment report came out. It showed some mixed signals with wage growth accelerating while job additions slowed. Healthcare gained while a few sectors declined, like manufacturing and business services. 

How might this data impact the Fed’s decision-making at their upcoming meeting? 

Scott Bauer 

I think what they’re going to do is take all this recent data and say, yeah, things are slowing down quite a bit. Especially when you add in the revision we just saw — another 900,000 jobs that really weren’t created. So I think we are going to see a more aggressive stance. I still believe they’re only going to cut a quarter. There are now some probabilities and thoughts out there they may cut 50, but I think moving forward we’ll see a more aggressive bias for further rate cuts, whether it’s October, December, or going into the first quarter of next year. In my estimation, we’re going to see a full point cut by January. 

Jeff Praissman 

Got it. Leading into this upcoming week, starting tomorrow we have the Consumer Price Index data being released, and that’s a number closely watched by the markets. What are your expectations, and how might different inflation scenarios impact various market sectors? 

Scott Bauer 

We’ve seen inflation be really sticky, and the markets still just have this Teflon armor to it — it didn’t really matter. Now maybe that narrative changes a little bit because we got PPI this morning, which was much lower than expected. With CPI tomorrow, it’s absolutely going to be closely watched. But if it’s in line or actually slightly lower than expected, boy, that will really ratchet up the pressure on the Fed. 

Jeff Praissman 

Yeah. Currently the futures are pricing maybe a 65% chance of a rate cut. I know we just spoke about this and you’re pretty confident that’s going to happen. Any other factors though that will ultimately determine the Fed’s decision for the upcoming meeting on September 16th and 17th? 

Scott Bauer 

They have made it clear they’re focused on the jobs market. Yes, inflation is sticky, but they have been laser-focused on jobs, unemployment, and wages. And you know what? The data recently has not been very good, which really feeds into the narrative of, “Okay, time to cut rates.” 

We’ll see what the perception is next week when they talk. We’ll see what Powell is like — is he really going to put on the big-time dovish hat or not? But I believe they have to see now, with these revisions and with wage growth really moderating, that it’s got to be pretty dovish in my opinion. 

Jeff Praissman 

That leads me to my final question. Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for performance. We’re approaching the midpoint and, as we just discussed, there are a ton of factors coming in that could either break the trend or hold it true. To sum it up, it seems like it really does just depend on the Fed’s decision and some economic data. Anything else that would have input on this, or are we really down to those two things? 

Scott Bauer 

If you think about it, Jeff, go back just a few weeks and talk about all the things that could have impacted the markets. Let’s start with Nvidia earnings. Then we had the jobs number. Now we have more inflation data. And yet the market is resilient and rebounding. September — we’ve talked about this before — the historical tendencies of the market really haven’t held true this year. If you go back earlier in the year with the January effect, and then if you sold in May and went away, you really got hurt. August was a pretty good month, and I know September is historically the worst month, but it definitely wouldn’t surprise me to see this upside bias hold. 

Now we may give back a little bit — the market has been on such a run. But boy oh boy, the way the market is moving is really hard to fight the trend. That being said, as we’ve discussed and as you and I know from experience: let the market do its thing, let it run, but buy that protection. We always talk about that. Buy that protection when you have the opportunity. 

Jeff Praissman 

Absolutely. Scott, this has been great as usual. And again, for our listeners, you can find more on Spotify, Apple Music, all the usual suspects, and on our website under Education. Also, check out prospertrading.com for more from Scott. Until next time, thank you. 

Scott Bauer 

Thanks so much, Jeff.