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Posted July 23, 2025 at 11:03 am
I find two combination trades expiring tomorrow attractive that are related to the 10:00 am ET release of US new home sales. For the headline figure, I like the risk-reward profile of buying the “Yes” and “No” at the 600k and 750k thresholds for a total of $1.79. The median estimate is at 650,000 and historical analysis points to transactions ranging between the two thresholds for 30 consecutive months. The max payout on this trade is $2.00 while investors risk $0.79.
Median Price Is Also Range Bound
For the median price of those new homes sold, my estimate of tomorrow’s figure is at $425k. Similar to the headline figure, this indicator has been range bound, with the level above $395K but below $450K for 31 consecutive months. I like the risk-reward of the “Yes” and “No” answers at those particular thresholds, which have a combined cost of $1.83. The max payout on this trade is $2.00 while investors risk $0.83.
Participants Expect the ECB To Hold Tomorrow With a High Degree of Certainty
In another matter, IBKR ForecastTraders believe that the European Central Bank will not change its key interest rate tomorrow.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 23, 2025.
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