- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted July 18, 2025 at 2:12 pm
In the months following the August 2024 launch of our IBKR ForecastTrader prediction market, contracts covering elections have become some of the most popular instruments among platform participants. The ongoing campaign for the New York City Mayor’s office is no exception with 1.39 million contracts addressing the probabilities of individuals’ chances of winning the position currently open. Clearly, the stakes are high in a political race that has already taken surprising twists and turns.
Perhaps most intriguing, Queens assemblyman and self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won a commanding and surprising victory in the Dem’s primary race. He now sports a 68% chance of winning, according to our IBKR ForecastTrader market. Meanwhile, long-established Democrats Mayor Eric Adams and former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo are competing as independents. ForecastTrader places the odds of either of those candidates winning at only 12% and 18%, respectively.
Mamdani supports increasing taxes on the richest New Yorkers by imposing a tax of an additional 2% on anyone making over $1 million annually. Additionally, he wants to raise the tax on corporations from 7.25% to 11.5% to match neighboring New Jersey. State Governor Kathy Hochul has been critical of the proposal, stating that she doesn’t want to lose more people to Palm Beach. Mamdani also wants to make buses free, implement a rent freeze on stabilized units, provide childcare at no cost to parents, build city-run non-profit supermarkets and create a Department of Community Safety.
Cuomo is campaigning on improving affordability by increasing low-cost housing units through new builds and redevelopments. He’s also looking to grant greater access to healthcare and help those who are denied coverage while also expanding mental health investments. Additionally, he wants to increase childcare options, reduce class sizes in educational institutions, and focus on technical education. From a law enforcement perspective, he wants to expand the police department and increase officer presence in the subway system. Cuomo is focusing on tax relief and would attempt to generate increased revenue through job creation and workforce training.
Current mayor Adams points to his track record of improving public safety, increasing affordable housing, enhancing the environment and managing the city’s finances. Going forward, he says he will continue with those policies and seek to improve infrastructure, sustain the city’s economic recovery by lightening regulations and supporting minority-owned businesses. He also seeks to support education, including preserving specialized high schools, providing students with screening for dyslexia and strengthening vocational training.
Jim Walden, a founding member of law firm Walden Macht Haran & Williams, is also stumping as an independent and is depicted as having virtually no chance of success. Similarly, New York’s five different Republican county parties for their part, have put forward Curtis Sliwa, founder and CEO of the Guardian Angels, but his probability of victory is also near zero.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 18, 2025.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Sliwa, Walden, and maybe Adams should drop out. Not sure what they are trying to accomplish by staying in the race. They will ensure Mamdani’s victory.
Good
Adams has raised a lot of money recently
THIS IS TOTAL NONSENSE. I HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING FOR SLIWA IN MANHATTAN THIS PAST WEEK AND I GOT SO MANY RESPONDENTS WHO ARE BACKING SLIWA. THE ELECTION IS 3 MONTHS AWAY & WHEN MAMDANI GOES HEAD ON AGAINST SLIWA IN A DEBATE IT WILL BE GAME OVER FOR HIM. BIG BUSINESS BY SEPTEMBER WILL MAKE HUGE DONATIONS ON BEHALF OF HIS ELECTION RUN.