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Interactive Options Course
Posted June 10, 2025 at 10:45 am
| Expiration | 03-Jul-25 |
| Buy | 720 Put |
| Sell | 760 Put |
| Sell | 800 Call |
| Buy | 840 Call |
| Credit: | $22.75 |
Eli Lilly And Company has increased by +0.8% today to $775.70. Over the last two weeks, the stock has traded between $714.33 and $772.62. Implied volatility for LLY is down -3.8% today, indicating the market is potentially forecasting lower volatility in the weeks ahead. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for LLY has a theoretical 71% success rate.
> > Click to View this Strategy in LLY Option Chain Profit Calculator
As you can see in the chart above, the most profitable outcome is for LLY stock price to close between $760.00 and $800.00 at the July 3, 2025 expiration. Within that price range, all of the options will expire worthless, and you’d keep the original $22.75 credit you received at the time of the trade.
The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is between $760.00 and $800.00. The maximum gain is $22.75
The maximum loss would occur if the stock price at expiration is below $720.00 or above $840.00. The maximum loss is $17.25
Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in LLY was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 20.73, with a high mark of 25.99 and a low of 15.52.
Currently, this iron condor is bid at 22.75 and offered at 25.50. The midpoint of the spread is 24.13.
If we use 20.73 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market bid price is at a 10% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 16% premium.
| Current Price | Historical Values of Similar Iron Condors | ||||
| Bid | Ask | Midpoint | Average | High | Low |
| 22.75 | 25.50 | 24.13 | 20.73 | 25.99 | 15.52 |
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.
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Originally Posted on June 9, 2025 – If LLY Price Stays Between $760 to $800 Level This Iron Condor Will Yield 132%
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