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Trump Takes Lead in Presidential Contract: Oct. 15, 2024

Trump Takes Lead in Presidential Contract: Oct. 15, 2024

Posted October 15, 2024 at 10:02 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

IBKR Forecast Trader participants are continuing to increase their expectations of Donald Trump winning the White House. The shift occurs as former president Trump gains for the fourth-consecutive trading day with his odds having increased to 53%. In fact, Forecast Trader contracts pointed to a 52% chance of Harris capturing the Oval Office last Wednesday. Projections of the country’s vice president being promoted to the executive position then declined to 51%, 50%, 49% and 47% during the last four business days.

Election Poll

Broad surveys of voters reflect a neck-and-neck race based on the electoral college, with swing states largely undecided. Indeed, the race is likely to be determined by just Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada, which carry 19, 16, 16, 15, 11, 10, 10 and 6 electoral points. With Trump carrying roughly 219 points based on current projections and needing another 51 to win, a combination of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina will print his ticket back to the Oval Office. If Trump loses those three states, however, he would need to win Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada to secure victory.

For Harris, she has 215 electoral votes secured based on current polls and would need to win Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and one of the following: Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Nevada to claim the Oval Office. If Harris loses in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, she has no path to victory.

electoral college

Source: RealClearPolitics (RCP). Map image was derived from the RCP website on October 15, 2024

While the two candidates are in a tight race, their economic policies vary significantly. Harris has proposed raising taxes on big businesses and Americans who make more than $400,000 a year, while she’s also mentioned taxing unrealized capital gains. She has also proposed increasing child tax credits and providing federal assistance for first-time homebuyers. Harris has also said she will implement laws to prevent price gouging on groceries. Regarding trade, she appears to embrace using targeted penalties rather than a blanket approach, while she maintains her position as an immigration dove.

Trump, for his part, has proposed tax reductions and regulatory relaxations in hopes that the policies will produce sustainable economic growth. They would include an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. He believes that capital expenditures and foreign direct investment would offset the impact on federal revenue. He maintains he will ease housing price pressures by enacting tight border policies. He has also proposed imposing tariffs as high as 20% on most imported goods and substantially higher fees on products from China, a change he believes would bolster American manufacturing and competitiveness. 

This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.

Source: ForecastEx

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8 thoughts on “Trump Takes Lead in Presidential Contract: Oct. 15, 2024”

  • Tech Editor

    Even though I will vote Trump, I am an editor and see some obvious bias in your writing. I do not care what party line you tote, I would really like to see a lot more honest unbiased reporting. I should not be able to detect whether or not you support or reject any particular candidate.

    • Anonymous

      can you point to an example of this bias, please?

    • Anonymous

      Excellent work!

    • Anonymous

      I see it, too. The choice of words in the Harris summary seemed ok at first. Then, when reading the Trump summary, it switches to Trump’s optimistic beliefs/opinions. So, when going back to read Harris’ again, the writer sounds more critical of her instead of repeating her optimistic beliefs/opinions.

  • Brett

    Trump has also proposed deporting illegal immigrants and will likely reduce legal immigration as he did last time around. This may lower housing demand but will create worker shortages pushing prices up and supply down for most goods and services.

    Inflationary pressures will rise significantly if Trump is elected.

    • Settin' You Straight

      Hahaha! Prices will rise “significantly if Trump is elected,” huh? What has happened over the last 4 years, smart guy? My last gas purchase under Trump was at $2.68. Under “Bankrupting-us-for-Beijing” Biden and Kuntmala, it’s been as high as $6 per gallon–on several occasions. And food prices have skyrocketed.

      Where have YOU been, Brett? Or is your real name Hunter Biden?

  • DAVID

    Ridiculous .. If trump is elected … massive; unprecedented energy production will occur totally lowering the cost drivers into 100% of all economic activity and reducing home energy costs.

    Inflationary pressures will immediately collapse. WAKE UP.

  • Joe Alden

    Lock that guy up and throw away the key
    WAKE UP AMERICA !!

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